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MoneyPang's Research International
Page 27
Remember to look at
the overall scene and do not be stubborn. If the flower looks rosy except for a thorn or
two, do not pull it out. Be sensible when it comes to your portfolio, so that, like your
garden, it will grow and prosper.
MoneyPang's Research International
Page 28
VIII. IT'S STAT TIME
Are we finished? Almost. Our
guide would not be complete without some beautiful statistics, now would it? We don't want
you Math gurus to feel cheated; so we will present not just one, but three important
statistics for your enjoyment.
1.) PRICE/BOOK RATIO
The price/book value (P/BV) ratio measures the stock price
relative to net assets per share of the company (net assets means book value). Net assets
equal total assets minus total liabilities. To obtain book value per share, simply divide
net assets by the total number of shares outstanding. For example, you may have a bank
account, a car, and a house which represent all your assets, but you also have mortgage
loans and an auto loan on the Ferrari that make up your total liabilities. Your net worth
would be equal to what is left of your assets had you used them to pay off all your
liabilities. Compare this net worth to how much someone is willing to pay to buy you. If
the buy price is substantially higher than your true worth, you are either in great demand
or simply overpriced. Of course, if someone offers to buy you at a price lower than your
true worth, you are underpriced and, indeed, quite a bargain.
Obviously, we are not interested in buying people here. If the price of
a stock is near book value per share, then great. If the price of a stock is less than
book value per share, then you are actually paying less than what you are getting for your
money. In other words, you may have found a bargain. For further clarification, look at
the P/BV formula below:
EQ.5
P/BV =
STOCK PRICE
BOOK VALUE PER SHARE
EQ.6
BOOK VALUE PER SHARE = TOTAL ASSETS - TOTAL LIABILITIES (net assets)
NUMBER OF SHARES OUTSTANDING
MoneyPang's Research International
Page 29
Before you become too
attached to using the P/BV ratio, we should warn you: ALWAYS treat book values with
caution because assets are comprised of many intangibles such as "good will" or
trademark valuations. These intangibles cannot be sold off and are of no real value. Be
careful and thoroughly check balance sheets to see what book value includes before you
invest in the company.
Now that you are a numbers guru, we will supply the last two statistics
needed to complete your combat training. These two statistics can be found in most company
research reports.
2.) The Professionals: Institutional Ownership
Institutions are those people holding your mutual fund money, bank
deposits, and retirement savings. Comprised of mutual fund managers, pension fund
managers, and sometimes bank managers, these professional investors control more money
than we will ever see in a lifetime. If your stock falls 10% in one day, these are the
people to blame. Together, they have billions of dollars in buying power and that
translates into any stock taking a leap or a dive. Institutional investors are the movers
and shakers that can make any stock do some dirty dancing.
Say for example, you find that institutions own roughly 35% of your
company's stock. If the company has 1 million shares outstanding, institutions own 350,000
shares which is quite a lot. For our companies, we really do not want these
"professionals" anywhere near our stock. We can allow institutional ownership of
about 5% to 15% at most, but that is enough. Tell them to go find their own superstocks!
Why keep them away, you ask? Good question. Suppose institutional
ownership of your company is at 35%. This means that money managers have already spent
millions of dollars to buy shares of your company. The stock price has moved up and you
may be too late to buy at a bargain price. Unless a surge of other investors start buying,
the stock is not going to explode upward anytime soon. Furthermore, if any of these
institutional owners get nervous and start selling their millions of shares, gravity takes
over and your stock has no place to go, but down.
Basically, when trying to find an undiscovered cash cow of a company,
you do not want too many institutions involved yet. Ideally, institutional ownership
should initially fall between 5% to 15% of all outstanding shares. Only AFTER you buy the
stock should the company get as much exposure as possible. When institutional money
managers flood in to push the stock dramatically higher, just sit back and go with the
flow. Apply good sense. Focus on companies which are too small to attract institutional
interest and have been overlooked by the financial media, and you can often find
remarkable bargains. Fortunes are made sooner or later when such bargains get
"discovered".
MoneyPang's Research International
Page 30
3.) Inside Job: Insider
Ownership
Another important statistic is insider ownership. Representing the
percentage of shares owned by insiders such as the CEO, senior managers, directors, and
other employees, insider ownership can be extremely useful.
For a superstock, insider ownership should fall between 10% to 35% of
all outstanding shares. If ownership is over 40%, you should be cautious when insiders
start selling because the stock could dive quickly from a large selloff. Less inside
ownership also leaves room for institutional investors. When institutions hear about your
great company and start buying, the stock price should inflate for a tidy profit.
Let's clarify why insider ownership is useful. Say that you and your
friends decide to spend a day at the racetrack. Near the betting booth, you run into the
jockey of Oldfart, a horse running in the next race. The first question you may want to
ask is, "Mr. Jockey, which horse are you betting on?" He replies, "What an
idiotic question! My own, of course!" Now you are thinking, "Great! This jockey
really believes in his horse if he's willing to bet his own money!" Perhaps you
should bet on this horse too. But before doing so, you should ask another question.
"If you are betting on your own horse, HOW MUCH are you
betting?" If the answer is, "Two bucks and some change", you may want to
rethink your strategy and avoid wagering your mother's entire life savings on Oldfart and
the jockey. On the other hand, suppose the jockey replies, "I took out a million
dollar loan and sold my dog to bet on Oldfart!" Then the race would be quite
interesting.
The Oldfart example simply illustrates that if insiders own a
substantial amount of shares in their company, their management really believes in the
company's future prospects. That is, they are willing to bet their OWN money on the
company. This statistic is the closest you will ever get to trading on inside information
without spending a couple of years in jail. Further, if you can find out what insiders are
doing BEFORE you buy your shares, all the better. You can often find clues to reveal a
company's future prospects by looking at the reasons behind insider buying and selling.
Are insiders buying more shares because the company is coming out with a new product soon,
or are they dumping shares because they know that the next earnings report will not meet
expectations?
Here are two helpful things to know when watching insider trading.
First, NEVER buy a stock if there is a lot of insider selling. If large blocks of shares
are being sold by one or more insiders, DO NOT buy the stock regardless of how cheap it
may seem. These insiders usually know something that you don't. Secondly, if there are a
lot of insiders buying the stock at the same time, the stock is probably a good bet. The
reasoning behind these two hints are simple, but they work more often than people think.
MoneyPang's Research International
Page 31
Insider statistics can
be found monthly in the Wall Street Journal, usually in the "Money and
Investing" section, and also in their sister publication, Barron's. Their
insider statistics tell you which companies have the highest insider trading volume and
also indicate which insiders have done the purchasing. Lexis-Nexis and CD-ROM Compact
Disclosure are other excellent sources to find insider stats on your superstocks. If you
happen to see heavy insider purchases of your company's stock, prepare to celebrate
because the company may do very well in the future with either better earnings or by
introducing its new and improved non-abrasive nose-hair clipper. Just remember that
insiders are people too; they don't like losing money, especially their own. Furthermore,
regardless of how well you did your PRESEARCH, you will never know more than insiders.
These last two statistics may not seem as important as balance sheet or
income statement analysis, but do not underestimate their value. The two IO's,
Institutional and Insider Ownership, should not be overlooked when it comes to
PRESEARCHING your beloved company.
MoneyPang's Research International
Page 32
IX. THE ART OF
WAR: COMBAT RULES TO LIVE BY
You have now completed your
preliminary training. You are ready to wage war with those computer traders, analysts,
gurus, palm-readers, and astrologers. We say "preliminary" because this guide is
really just the first step. As you become accustomed to analyzing dozens of companies, you
will find that PRESEARCHING is a continual learning experience. Hopefully, you will learn
from your losers and profit handsomely with your winners. By using ALL of the principles
discussed in MoneyPang's guide, you can learn to invest intelligently. To further help
you, here are some additional strategic investment rules to live and prosper by:
1.) Never put your entire life savings into one stock. Reduce your risk
by diversifying into at least 5 to 10 superstocks (depending on how much you are
investing). If just one of them hits the moon, you will be in the money.
2.) Never use one rule to buy a stock, use ALL guidelines discussed in
this guide to analyze your company. Make decisions based on ALL relevant information
including ratios and common sense. USE BOTH SEXCE AND PEG CRITERIA!!!
3.) You must review your selections, at least, quarterly. Let's see,
that's just 4 times a year. Considering that your investment could possibly make the
difference between your child going to Harvard or the State School of Shoe Repair, IT IS
WELL WORTH YOUR TIME.
4.) Never, ever buy on a whim and this includes listening to the idiot
in disguise. Just remember that the person who recommends a stock to you may NOT have been
fortunate enough to read this manual (what a tragedy!). Therefore, the advice may not be
good. Either way, always PRESEARCH a company BEFORE buying.
5.) Buy low, wait, and have PATIENCE! Remember that downside risk can
be minimized if you do your PRESEARCH thoroughly. Buy cheap stocks that have a great
story. If the stock price increases, you may want to take profits. But first review the
stock to see if it still has potential. Playing the stock market to make millions requires
PATIENCE. You can follow a stock from $2 to $200 only if you wait. This waiting time can
be approximately 2 to 5 years. If the company still looks sexy after your quarterly
reviews, wait a while longer. Learn to be PATIENT and to weather those ups and downs. Real
money is produced by the generosity of time, not by unpredictable short-term volatility.
6.) Lastly, have faith in your own judgment. Believe it or not,
instincts play an important role in stock picking. Be confident and you can pick winners.
If you apply all the knowledge you learned so far, you should do very
well. All the PRESEARCH analytics just described may sound time-consuming, but it is time
well spent. As you become more proficient in your analysis, PRESEARCH time will be
dramatically reduced. Now for those of you that used this for bathroom reading, a brief
summary is provided.
MoneyPang's Research International
Page 33
MoneyPang's Research International
Page 34
X. SUMMARY FOR THOSE THAT FELL
ASLEEP
1.) Find company: no
problem, just do what you do everyday, shop, look at products, go to stores, read
newspapers, magazines (tabloids do not count), etc... Be aware of company names.
Time elapsed: no time wasted, just get a life!
Cost: none, maybe pen and paper for jotting down company names.
2.) Find company description, financial information, phone number: no
problem, go to the library, ask for business reference section, look for directories
mentioned in MoneyPang's guide, photocopy company information.
Time elapsed: at most 30 minutes to 1 hour, depending on how many
companies you have.
Cost: library card, parking meter, pen, change for photocopies.
3.) Assuming the library does NOT have the most recent company
information AND does not have LEXIS- NEXIS, call company.
Time elapsed: 5 - 10 minutes depending on how long you are on hold and
the number of companies called.
Cost: Listening to annoying secretary, long-distance phone bills, or
postage stamps for those of you who like the taste of stamps (cheaper than calling), send
a small index card or postal card with your name and address to the Investor Relations
Department requesting ALL the latest company information.
4.) Now comes the fun part, analyzing...
Time elapsed: 10 - 30 minutes for EACH company depending on how sleepy
you are, how interested you are, how good the company is, and how much analyzing you
really need to do (if the company is solid, in a very good industry, has no debt, and
satisfies ALL the PRESEARCH criteria, you are permitted to go to bed).
Cost: cup of coffee, some leisure time, some brain work, calculator
5.) Lest we forget, buy the stock.
Time elapsed: One minute on phone with DISCOUNT broker.
Cost: You decide.
MoneyPang's Research International
Page 35
FAREWELL AND MAY THE FORCE BE WITH
YOU!
There you have it, down and dirty, the scoop just for you on how to be
a great research analyst. The goal of this guide is to show YOU that even the little
investor can do it in a big way. YOU can find that HOT stock and make SERIOUS MONEY, and
even enjoy it. Now before you go out and celebrate in the library, remember MoneyPang's
Golden Rule of Investing, PRESEARCH BEFORE PURCHASE.
Now go get the most PANG for your buck!
GOOD LUCK!
Jimmy K. Pang
MoneyPang's Research International
Page 36
20 TIPS- PORTRAIT OF A BEAUTIFUL
COMPANY
1.) Company has an innovative, creative product with the potential to
expand into a fast-growing market.
2.) Company has products that people are buying year after year.
3.) Company is expanding to new locations or gaining market share over
its competitors, if any.
4.) Company does not have too many competitors to erode pricing margins
(company does not have to keep reducing the prices of their products to keep up with
competitors).
5.) Company does not have too many shares of common stock outstanding.
Less shares translate into higher price movements when institutions start demanding your
very SEXCE company. Less shares also prevent company earnings from being diluted (if
earnings remain constant, EPS falls as the # of shares outstanding increases- not good).
Less is more, in this case.
6.) Stock price is less than $10. This limits loss and provides
unlimited potential for gain.
But if the company is outstanding relative to its price, a higher stock
price should not deter you from buying the stock.
7.) Company has consistently high and accelerating sales and earnings
growth rates greater than P/E ratio.
8.) P/E ratio is less than company sales and net income (EPS) growth
rates. If the company is a fast-growing, small-cap stock, P/E ratio should be less than
HALF the growth rates to protect yourself.
9.) P/E ratio is less than competitor's ratio AND especially less than
the market ratio such as the S & P 500.
10.) Company has sales growth rates greater than cost of sales growth
rates.
11.) Company is profitable for a minimum of 4 consecutive quarters with
accelerating earnings. Company should definitely not have ANY losses, unless the losses
were incurred during the development stage.
12.) Company has some cash, preferably greater than debt.
13.) Company has low debt or NO debt.
14.) Company has small, but growing institutional ownership by pension
fund managers, mutual fund managers, and other money managers. Best if 5%- 15% initial IO.
15.) Company has 10% to 35% of insider ownership by managers,
directors, or even better, employees.
16.) Don't forget to read the footnotes of an annual report, details,
details!
17.) If the company's stock price starts moving consistently higher on
HEAVY volume, watch out!
18.) USE PEG ANALYSIS!!!
19.) USE SEXCE ANALYSIS!!!
20.) The sky's the limit!
It is difficult to find a company that satisfies every criteria; so
depending on the company's situation, assign weights to each criteria that the company
satisfies.
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Copyright 1994 by MPRI, Queens, New York
All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced in any
form without permission from MPRI. Information or opinions by this report are presented
solely for informative purposes. Companies mentioned herein are not recommendations of any
kind to buy or sell securities. All trademarks are properties of their respective owners.
MPRI is not a registered investment advisor and therefore cannot give individual
investment advice.
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